Do fiscal rules cause better fiscal balances? A new instrumental variable strategy

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985–2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may affect the adoption of domestic reforms through peer pressure and imitational effects. We find that the mere existence of fiscal rules correlates with lower deficits, but the positive link disappears when endogeneity is correctly addressed. However, when considering the strength of rules through a continuous index of fiscal rules’ design, we show that well-designed rules have a statistically significant impact on fiscal balances. We conduct several robustness tests and show that our results are generally robust and not affected by weak instrument problems.     

Wage and price differences,technology gap and labor flow dynamics

The relationship between wage difference and relative employment is a very important issue in the field of economic structural change. An M-sector economic growth model is constructed in this paper to investigate the relationship between wage difference, price difference, technology gap, relative employment and sectoral dynamic change from the perspective of technologies. Labor flow is regarded as a decision-making behavior to maximize the benefits of economic agents. The benefits of labor flow mainly come from sectoral wage difference, and the costs of labor flow mainly come from the social resource expenditure during labor flow process. Our model illustrates that: (i) the relative employment is positively correlated with the real wage difference and technology gap; (ii) the sectoral dynamic changes coexist with the aggregate economic growth; (iii) increases in technology gap, and price and wage differences will stimulate labor migration, exacerbate the unbalanced growth of sectoral economies, and lead to faster and more effective aggregate economic growth.     

Structural current accounts in the European Union countries: cross-sectional exploration

This paper investigates structural determinants of the current account balance and assesses whether the current accounts in the European Union countries were consistent with the calculated structural current accounts between 1995 and 2017. We estimate current account regressions using cross-sectional data for 94 countries in 2008–2016 and confirm the main findings with panel data estimates. We document that the current account depends on the real exchange rate in a nonlinear way. The real exchange rate affects the current account at low income levels, but it ceases to be important at high income levels. Based on structural current account estimates for the European Union countries, we document that after the 2008 crisis current accounts adjusted towards structural current accounts in deficit countries, but persisted above structural current accounts in surplus countries.     

Death spiral PIPEs: a reconsideration of the evidence

We challenge the view that PIPEs lead to unfavourable outcomes for issuing firms. We show that structured PIPEs do not have significant negative CARs when a matched firm benchmark is used for computing CARs and when sample selection bias is taken into account. Indeed, structured PIPEs have significantly higher positive skewness, indicating superior optionality, consistent with the real option argument. We also show that the 2002 intervention by the Securities and Exchange Corporation (SEC) has led to unintended consequences, with the substitution of ‘mom and pop’ investors for hedge fund investors in the structured PIPE market.     

虚拟品牌社区顾客体验会带来其价值共创行为吗--基于手机虚拟品牌社区的实证研究

本文以顾客体验为切入点,基于价值共创理论、心理所有权理论和互惠规范理论,并运用于S-O-R理论框架,构建了虚拟品牌社区下,顾客参与价值共创行为产生的影响路径模型,通过问卷调查与实证分析得出:第一,顾客信息体验和娱乐体验越强,其参与价值共创的意愿程度越高,心理所有权部分中介了二者的促进关系;互动体验强化了社区顾客的心理所有权,并经由心理所有权的完全中介提高其参与共创意愿。第二,顾客参与共创意愿程度越高,其价值共创行为就越容易出现,社区的互惠规范正向调节了二者的关系。     

Land outsourcing and labour contracting: Labour management in China's capitalist farms

Difficulty in labour supervision has been considered to be one of the obstacles to the development of capitalist agriculture. This paper presents two distinctive labour management strategies in China's large‐scale agriculture, which contribute to the development of agrarian capitalism in China. As shown in these cases, agribusiness companies engaged in grain crop production retreat from direct labour management by outsourcing crop cultivation, while acquiring profits from upstream and downstream activities. On the other hand, capitalist producers, who are involved in the labour‐intensive and capital‐intensive crop production, tend to mobilize local elites to manage the farmworkers. Although independent labour contracting services have not emerged, a specialized group of labour contractors is being cultivated. Rural social resources are utilized in labour recruitment and supervision to minimize the labour management costs in both strategies. However, the conflicts between capital and labour are covered or replaced instead of being settled.     

国内外健康旅游研究述评

基于叙述性文献综述法梳理国内外健康旅游的研究脉络,研究发现国内外对于健康旅游的研究内容和方法具有较大差异。国内健康旅游的研究仍处于起步阶段,研究内容集中于资源开发、产业现状及发展对策等方面,研究中多采用定性研究的方法。国外对于健康旅游的研究范围则从单一类型的水疗旅游逐渐向医疗旅游、保健旅游、旅游动机等细分领域拓展,研究方法的选择更加多元,定性、定量以及定性和定量相结合的方法均具有相当的比例。希望通过对国内外健康旅游研究差异的分析,找到国内在该领域研究的不足,为国内未来在健康旅游领域的研究和健康旅游产业的发展提供思路和指导。     

Does high‐speed rail connection really promote local economy? Evidence from China’s Yangtze River Delta

High‐speed rail (HSR) has led to a transportation revolution in China. This paper uses the county‐level panel data of China’s Yangtze River Delta to investigate the effect of HSR connection on local economy. To address the issue of endogenous HSR route placement, we use a straight‐line strategy to construct potential HSR connection variables as instrumental variables of the actual HSR connection. Both the difference‐in‐differences and instrumental variable methods show that HSR connection impedes local economy, especially in peripheral regions. The impediment effect is channeled through population reallocation from peripheral to core areas and the restructuring of industries.     

中国的所有制结构与区域劳动生产率收敛

基于2001~2017年中国工业分企业所有制-分地区-分行业的面板数据，利用相对劳动生产率和变异系数指标对全国和分区域的国有企业、私营企业、外商和港澳台企业的劳动生产率增长和收敛性进行描述性分析，并运用双向固定效应模型对其进行计量检验。结果显示：从全国范围来看，三类所有制结构的劳动生产率均呈现显著的绝对收敛和条件收敛，但是收敛速度呈现差异。其中，私营企业收敛速度最快，外商和港澳台企业次之，国有企业收敛速度最慢。分区域来看，东北和西部收敛速度相对较快，中部次之，而沿海三类所有制结构的劳动生产率收敛速度均较慢。因此，政府应进一步从深化国有企业改革、鼓励非公有制经济发展和完善市场竞争等方面努力，有助于缩小区域发展差距和促进所有制结构的收敛，从而带动整体经济的收敛。     

论习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的精神实质与实践要求

习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想是党的十九大的灵魂和主线,是我们党迈进新时代、开启新征程、续写新篇章的政治宣言和行动指南。其精神实质集中体现在贯穿这一伟大思想始终的以人民为中心、斗争精神和知行合一。其实践要求至少应包括坚持党的全面领导,牢固树立“四个意识”“四个自信”,坚决做到“两个维护”;落实以人民为中心的发展思想,从保障和改善民生做起,坚持群众想什么、我们就干什么;将全面深化改革进行到底,坚定改革的决心和信心,掌握改革的方法等。同时,习近平总书记对北京工作也提出了一系列要求,如以建设国际一流的和谐宜居之都为战略目标;以探索构建超大城市治理体系为首要任务;以精治共治法治为切入点等等。